Investment Outlook 2015 : taking a second look to what we own

As my usual habit, I attended HSBC's investment outlook series held at Makati Shangrila Hotel last Monday.  The salad with duck strips was fantastic.  The greens were of the bitter variety.  The main course was salmon teriyaki with potato risotto.  Salmon was superb!  I skipped the dessert, as usual.  But they served some sort of raspberry chocolate mouse.   As I was extra hungry that day, I got two bread rolls as well with generous servings of butter.

I usually enjoy HSBC's road show.  They invite distinguished speakers who gives its audience lots of data analysis and investment themes.   But this particular talk was a real downer. One speaker had an accident which left us with only two speakers.  And one of those speakers simply gave us Portfolio Strategy 101.  Too bad I didn't get his name.  I should have.  He talked as if we were a bunch of nincompoops who never heard of diversification, correlation, hedge funds.   Based on the questions thrown at him, majority of the audience were informed educated investors.  In all the years I have attended their talk, the questions were as interesting as the speakers' analysis.

Investment Themes:

1.  Asian credit growth rates would continue to slow down.

2.  US Fed is reducing its holding duration.  They are selling their 10 year bonds.  US rates are creeping up especially at the long end of the curve.

3.  US domestic recovery still faces debt headwind.

4.  Despite the Chinese bull run, Chinese fundamentals have not really significantly improved.   Although investment in Chinese stocks seems like a no-brainer these days, we have to tread slowly and invest only in fundamentally sound chinese companies.

5.  US dollar would decline.  Historically, US Dollar weakens after a rate hike.  I know it doesn't make sense.  But this happens consistently, maybe because the US dollar is actually an expensive currency, just like the Swiss francs.  And they are dropping hints they would increase interest rate , probably would happen around September of this year,   It might also be a good idea to invest in Gold.   Historically, Gold improves when US Dollar declines.

6.  HSBC is underweight on fixed income.  However on a personal note, I would think HSBC's outlook on fixed income is more towards the developed countries.  I don't think our fixed income market in the Philippines would decline that much.

7.  HSBC is going neutral these days with the Chinese market.  I think they are merely being prudent on this.  I still see some action for the chinese market for the rest of the year.  But let's pick those stocks that are fundamentally sound.  I, for one, believe HSI 's real value would be around the 29000 level.  So there's still room for growth.

8.  HSBC is going overweight on hedge funds.  We may all be afraid of the word hedge funds that is also synonymous to illiquid, long term, high entry, discretionary funds.  But there are funds out there these days that are very liquid and fully disclosed the invested assets.  One good thing about hedge funds is that it invests across various asset classes that would provide us that much needed diversification in our portfolio.  My account office offered me one hedge fund that is liquid (I can withdraw it anytime), has low investment capital, offers full disclosure and manageable volatility (4%).  Problem is its return is just around 7% p.a..    

Getting to Know Our Elephants at Patara Farm

Holy Week is around the corner and I crave for an outbound trip that would bring hope into my heart once again.

For a few months now, I have been experiencing frustration and hopelessness at mankind in general.  Im surrounded by people who smiles at me on a daily basis and swears their support while meeting my nemesis by nightfall to plan how to destroy me.  Im overwhelmed at the magnitude of their hatred.  They do not understand that being fair does not mean giving everybody the same salary.  Being fair means giving what one is due.

I simply need this vacation to restore my faith and to give my heart a rest.   After much googling, I finally found the answer to my prayer.  In Patara Farm, I would have a chance to experience being an elephant owner for a day.  This isn't simply about riding the elephant.  It is about taking care of a particular elephant for the whole day, ensuring your elephant's health, cleaning them up, feeding them and walking with them.   It sounded simple and yet I sensed I would never be the same after this experience.

I flew to Chiangmai, Thailand and stayed at a boutique resort, Imagine Resort.  I balked at the name, but I was in this mood for reckless behaviour.  So even when there's a popular chain of hotels in this town (Shangrila), I chose to stay at a resort that would put me in a middle of a rice field , away from it all.

And indeed, I was really staying in a middle of a rice field, with the frogs and the birds and everything in between.  This resort has only 5 villas.  Amenities are few: a salt water swimming pool, a large garden with lake, WIFI in every corner and an adequate breakfast.  The owner, AP, is an energetic friendly young man who got his degree in New York and worked in hotel chains for some time.  Don't be surprise to witness how he single-handedly manage the whole resort by being the driver, concierge, cook, waiter and guest relations officer.  The only thing he didn't do is clean our rooms.  But I find myself talking to him at length in more than one occasion, as he proves to be an intelligent and perceptive young man who has strong points of view on politics and economics.  Don't you worry about the room, as he designed the room in the modern style and with exquisite taste that would surely get the nod of his most discerning patrons.

On my first day , I simply gathered my supplies and spent time in their local coffee shop chatting with the girls.  On the second day, I woke up early to be at Patara Farm at 7 in the morning.  There is only a handful of elephants but it was enough to scare me.  Their huge HUGE size is really intimidating.  And maybe that is why the owners of Patara gave us a chance to simply play with the elephants for an hour or so, just for us to get use to their sizes.  

The briefing gave us an overview of what to expect.  They stressed that they are not a conservation camp for elephants.  They do not solicit funds.  They are simply stewards of these elephants.  I believe that because the price tag for participating in this activity sure as hell beat any solicitation from any conservation groups.  It is also at this time that they let us sign a waiver. In case of death or injury, they are not liable for us.  Elephants are still wild animals.  They can just drop you from their backs and step on you when they are not in the mood.  With my eye shut, I signed those forms.

We were split into groups of 6.   My group was asked to climb this hill to meet our elephants.   The climb itself is challenging.  No ropes, no nothing.  You just hope and pray you do not fall and drop dead even before you meet your elephant.  It was a steep climb and my calves were screaming , when I caught sight of my elephant.

I was introduced to Meijun immediately.  My elephant was 37 years old.  I was given this basket of bananas and sugarcane to feed him and to be friendly with him.  I was supposed to put my hand inside his mouth but sensing my hesitation, he offered his trunk to me instead.  Afterwards, I got a chunk of green blades to make a bouquet and started slapping his back to clean him before bathing him.   When he was clean enough ,  it was time to ride him.  But I have the fear of heights, so I chose to just walk beside him.  I regretted that decision.  I found myself trekking the mountains for miles on end.  I slipped many times but nobody helped me.  It's a good thing I have those bamboo trees to grab on to when I almost slipped down those steep slopes.  There was this very steep drop and I froze.  I kept strategizing on my head how to best tackle that drop when I found myself left behind.  They all left me.  I was on a brink of crying when I suddenly sensed somebody came back for me.  It was the baby elephant.  He was 4 weeks old and too young to be assigned to anyone.  He was simply there to tail his mom and dad.  He came back for me!  With his strong back as support , I managed to walk down the steep drop. After around 2 hours of trekking, we stayed at this lake with a small waterfall.  I got a brush and a basket and started brushing my elephant  from head to toe, pouring water all over his body from time to time. After a while, he started splashing me water gathered from his trunk and soon I  was wet all over.  Yikes!  those waters are filled with elephant dung.  But what the heck, let's just splash water all around us.  In that instant, I was reduced to an 8 year old girl playing with my biggest playmate ever.

I cleaned up by climbing (Again!) some slippery rocks to reach the waterfalls.  I washed up there and the heat of the sun dried up my clothes instantly.   I  got some banana leaves and the locals started slicing some fruits.  Lunch was served ala picnic style where 70% of it is fruits.  I think I ate 3 dragon fruits.  So sweet!  I was grouped with the Brits who didn't pay attention to the dragon fruits.  Lucky me!

I got some leftover bananas and decided to share it with Meijun.   Some other elephants spotted me and started going all over me.  They all wanted a piece of the banana.  I gave some of them but made sure to leave some for my own elephant.  Finally, I spotted him.  I gave him my sweet banana to my sweet Meijun.  I changed to my clean clothes and we rode back to the camp.

I paid for the day's activity.  It was expensive at almost $300 per person.  But the fee already includes a CD of photos with you and the elephant.  That was enough for me as a souvenir.   I left the place with a heavy heart.  I sure would miss Meijun.

El Nido Resorts Pangulasian Island: A Resort with a Heart

My elderly aunt came for a visit , and we wanted to treat her to a trip to Amanpulo.  Unfortunately, the resort was badly destroyed from a recent typhoon and they were still renovating the place.  So rooms were very limited, and they cannot accommodate us.   This led us to discover another luxury resort in Bacuit Bay, El Nido- PANGULASIAN ISLAND. 

El Nido Resort offers four resorts: Miniloc, Lagen, Apulit and Pangulasian.  But among the four resorts, Pangulasian is the most exclusive , the most private and the newest resort.  

Going there

Guests would need to avail their accredited charter plane.  Plane ride costs 11,800 pesos per adult.  Departure time is 7am and 11am.  Lounge is comparable to any airline lounges; they offer various drinks and an array of sandwiches, pastries and hot congee.   Place is air-conditioned and had TV in every area.  Check in procedure was a breeze and every comfort was extended to the guests.  Although I have 5 baggages I never felt the stress of carrying any one of them.   

Plane ride was equally comfortable.  It was a one hour flight.  Upon arrival, we were transported via a jeepney to a local lounge area in a "bahay kubo" style in the middle of a field.  We were served local delicacies and drinks there as well.  After 5 to 10 minutes of wait, we were given a short ride going to the pier.  We rode a speedboat from the pier going to the island.  Freshly baked biscuits were passed around during the 25-minute ride.  So far, so good.

Pangalusian Island

The beach is so beautiful!  I was rendered breathless by its beauty!  So beautiful.  Let the pictures speak for themselves.

Activities

There is a line up of activities in this resort (and I think also in other El Nido Resorts) that are offered for free.  

1.   Lagoon Tour

      

      This is a two hour activity, for the young and old alike, who has an open mind for a bit of adventure.  

      A boat will bring the guests to a small lagoon.  Upon reaching there, all the guests will be given a kayak to paddle around the small lagoon.  It is imperative that ALL use the kayak as there will be places that have small holes to pass through.  So you can only see the small lagoon via kayak.  If you do not know how to kayak, there are 2 available boatmen who can paddle for you  (but then you  miss half the fun of getting lost!)  The lagoon is around 8 meters deep only, so its pretty safe.  Water is very calm, so even my 7 year old can paddle on her own. 

     After touring the small lagoon, we go back to our boat to go to the big lagoon.  Here, we threw all our inhibitions, and just jumped into the very clear water.  

2.  Island Hopping

     This entails going to three islands:  Cathedral, a cave and snake island.  Cathedral island is just pure sight seeing.  The cave is a bit exciting because you get to climb to this little hole (and try to fit all your body parts) and go inside a cave where the bats are.  Snake island is nicest because you get to walk to this narrow walkway, surrounded by water.  Crabs and fishes are all around you.  Very peaceful

3.  Snorkeling

     This is the most adventurous among all the activities.  At 7am, a small speedboat will take you to the middle of sea.  Then, you are expected to just jump into the water : with or without a vest.  After you jump, the boat leaves you behind.  A dumbfounded look just zeroed in on my face:  What the *&^%!  Where is the boat?  Where is he going???  Come back!  

     

     Then the guide announces that we are in a shark infested area.  The rest is up to your imagination. 

     

    

4.  Hiking/Trekking

     At 5:30am , we climbed in this small hill.  My elderly aunt regretted joining , even if she did not say it.  The walk is steep, it would definitely kill the calories residing in your thighs.  It was a 1 hour trek, but the view is amazing.  Simply amazing!

5.  Other water activities

     Kayaking is for free!  So I make sure to do this as often as I can.

Dining

Food is great in this place.  Kudos to the chef, especially the pastry chef.   All their biscuits , breads and cakes are freshly baked.  I have to especially mention their CARROT CAKE.  They give it for free and its so addicting.  Pangalusian Pizza is also uniquely offered in this place, it has vigan longganisa, mango bits, tomato, kesong puti, arugula.  The grilled red snapper fillet is also very satisfying. 

They only have two dining places:  the formal one in the main dining, and the one near the pool al fresco style.  Average prices per meal would be 500 to 1000 pesos.  Fresh fruit juices are 250 pesos each.  

Accommodation

I stayed in the beach villa.  The place is HUGE!  They have a king size bed, a daybed, an extra bed inside the room.  The bathroom is so spacious as well, that it can house one long bed. The terrace has 2 daybeds too.    It costs 32,500 pesos per night. 

VERDICT

I went to El Nido- Pangulasian Island to have a vacation.  I left the place leveling up the standards of my vacation.  This place is very very serious about maintaining their environment and marine sanctuaries.  They do not use plastic bottles, or anything plastic.  They provide water bottles for each guest and you have to walk to certain areas to get your water fill.  They do not kill animals, even the snakes, sharks, termites.  It is a normal occurrence in that place to just walk on a "bayawak".  Coral reefs are bountiful and fish varieties are plenty.  When you get to the place, they brief you on the animals you will meet in that place and encourage you to inform them.  I even had a preying mantis sitting on the lobby while we were checking in. 

I like the simplicity of Amanpulo's set up, its convenience in traveling there (no need to ride boats, jeepneys and whatnots), you simply ride the plane and you go straight to the resort.  But the Pangulasian Island is a resort with a heart.  I left there being more conscious of the marine life and the environment and loving the bio diversity this country has to offer to the world.  It is in this place that I fully realize what it meant to be Stewards of Mother Earth. 

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FOR 2014 BY HSBC

Twice a year, I would attend the luncheon seminar hosted by HSBC at Makati Shangrila Hotel.  Although I have switched careers, I still find it enjoyable to attend this function.

This time around, we were served greens for starters and grouper garnished with beets and carrots for main dish.  Dessert was warm apple crumble with vanilla ice cream.

"A Good But Not a Vintage Year"

My take home notes for this affair are the following:

1. Consensus expects moderate pick up in GDP Growth.   Their biggest bet this year is the Eurozone, followed by US.  They aren't as optimistic for EM and Japan this year.

2.  There is divergence between US retail sales growth and imports from EM Asia.  Why?  Common answers would be that US is merely using old inventory, but the more likely culprit would be the cheap labor of their European neighbors.

3.  China growth rebounding based  on infrastructure growth, rising property prices and strong credit growth.

4.  Some country calls:  US         - Neutral
                                      Europe   - Overweight
                                      Japan      -  Underweight
                                      Asia ex-Japan   - Neutral

5.  For 2014, bet is on the developed world, with Europe outshining the US.  They expect Europe to outperform global equities and deliver double-digit returns.  Also, Europe's valuations are attractive compared to US.   ECB is in easing mode and there are no signs of overconfidence among investors.

6.  For developed market equities , AVOID  Japan, Europe Cement, Europe Food Retailers, and Europe Healthcare.    Why?  Japan PM Abe's 3rd policy "arrow" to revive economy will be difficult to implement.  Cement markets oversupplied (capacity utilization is just 70%) .  Retailers continue to expand despite the demand going flat.

7.  For developed market equities, GO FOR European banks, European real estate, global materials, disruptive technology (like Apple some years ago)

8.  For Asian Equities, they expect only single-digit percentage gains as their ROE is under pressure.  Having underperformed in 2013, Asia is likely to play catch up in 2014.    Bets for Asian Equities is KOREA AND TAIWAN.    They are the proxy for mainland economic growth.  As China's economy stabilizes, North Asia is to benefit the most.  AVOID India, Hong Kong and Asia Shipping.  Why?  India continues to wrestle with high inflation as its economy slows.  Hong Kong is vulnerable to any rise in US interest rates due to the HKD peg, especially the real estate sector.  Overcapacity of asia shipping  coupled with weaker demand.

9.  For EM/LATAM Equities, Go For Mining, LATAM Oil and Gas, Mexico.  AVOID Russia Oil Gas, South Africa and Brazil.   Russian tax system is getting so complex.  South African retailers face serious problems in managing credit risk.  Brazil is facing some tail risks.  Aside from the World Cup football event that benefitted some retailers, their education sector faces major challenges due to the peak in enrollments.

10.  For BONDS, AVOID India, Brazil and Turkey.  GO FOR Korea, Singapore, Europe and Philippines.

11.  For FX, GO FOR US$, CNY, KRW, TWD and NOK.  AVOID  INR , GOLD, GBP, AUD, IDR.

12.  Gold is unlikely to do well as US FED tapers Quantitative Easing.

Battling the Big Scary C

I had breakfast with my sister at UCC in Corinthian Hills.   I ordered my usual fare of tinapa with scrambled egg with salted egg and brewed coffee.   She had corned beef hash -  half serving only as her usual.  We talked about the business, the kids and our parents.  I told her about my recent Singapore trip and that she should try the Thunder Tea Rice.  She discussed her planned trip with friends to Iceland in October.  Afterwards, I drove her to her new home in Greenmeadows.  I like the ambiance of this subdivision.  It does not have that intimidating feel of Corinthians. It is quiet, peaceful and I heard their swimming pool is even salted for health reasons.  Her house adopted the swedish design.  Very low-key.  Lots of spaces.  Modern and yet with a classic feel.  All functional.   We hung out at her kitchen.  I took some bananas while she juiced some vegetables for herself.  She was preparing her lunch.  We continued talking about casual stuff - her friends, my friends, their lives.   Soon, we had to go to office. We said our goodbyes.  I headed back to my car.  But as I drive towards Edsa heading to my office, tears started falling

My sister is going to Australia in a few days time to have biopsy and lumpectomy.  She had cysts on her breasts.  After many clinical tests,  they came out inconclusive.  They only use fine needle here in the Philippines so tests can come out false negative.  It means it can come out negative but its actually positive.   Dr. Samuel Ang does a lot of back jobs, probably because he is old na.  So she is flying to Australia since her bestfriend has a house there and a team of doctors to accommodate her.   After the biopsy, she can get the result in 48 hours.  By September 4, we would know if she has breast cancer.

In the meantime, en route to Australia she is passing by HongKong.  I asked why.  She said she wants to eat good ramen before facing her ordeal.    Funny funny girl!   This is the same girl who competed in the volleyball intramurals in high school when she had German Measles!!!!

But whether or not her result comes out positive or negative, I plan to spend more time with her, even if I have to brave the pasig traffic.   I would also try to save money again so we can go to Europe once more.  We have always planned on going to South of France.  But I avoid her like the plague.  Her idea of a 3 star tourist class hotel is one that includes the Louis Vuitton list of boutique hotels.  But she has always been charming and able to make me part with my money easily. But money only offers us comfort.  It can never replace the good memories we can do with it.

Why It Hurts To Pay Our Taxes

When the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (FFCCCII) invited President Benigno S. Aquino III to grace the opening ceremony of its 29th Biennial Convention, little did its members expect that his speech would be a reminder to pay taxes.

President Aquino started his speech with praise for outgoing president FFCCCII President Tan Ching and delighted his audience with some Chinese phrases. Nice warm-up. Then he warned that he was going to speak on a sensitive topic. Proceeding thus, he cited statistics that Filipino-Chinese businessmen were lacking in the fulfillment of civic duties by evading or underpaying taxes due the government.  He also gently reminded them that BIR Chief Kim Henares is very much on the job.  That after April 15, she will start hounding tax evaders.  

I cannot speak for the Filipino-Chinese business community. Nor am I in any way condoning or rationalizing the non-payment or underpayment of taxes. But the truth is, I think the willingness to pay taxes is influenced by the extent to which we see how our taxes are spent. And I suspect that quite a few other Filipinos think so too.

Civic servants, notably our rank-and-file public school teachers, policemen, soldiers and other public employees, continue to receive a pittance even while they perform duties vital to the state. They frequently have to supplement their meager incomes in order to make ends meet. 

Some public schools lack classrooms, which forces classes to be held elsewhere or on staggered schedules. And we wonder why the quality of our education is falling apart.

Go down to public hospitals like PGH, and you will see thousands of our countrymen desperately seeking medical care which they cannot afford, serviced by limited facilities and resources. 

Look at housing conditions which average-income families must contend with, and you are reminded that there is a great lack of decent dwellings, which of course many cannot afford. 

As for the paucity of infrastructure, the agony of the rush-hour commute for hundreds of thousands of Metro Manila residents on EDSA and other main thoroughfares is only one facet of this sad reality.

Poverty remains a way of life among the majority of our countrymen. Often, you only have to walk on a downtown sidewalk to see it for yourself.

Yet from the taxes we pay, we know so much is wasted. For instance, public money in the form of Priority Development Assistance Funds (PDAF) and Countryside Development Funds (CDF) continues to be allocated to legislators, Php 200 million per senator and Php 70 million per congressman. In 2012 these funds totaled over Php 24 billion, a hefty increase from Php 6.9 billion in 2010. Planned allocations for 2013 will balloon further to Php 30 billion. We are told that to ensure the lawmakers do not have total control of these funds, the executive agencies implement the bidding out of projects.  But there is difficulty verifying the authenticity of beneficiaries of the pork barrel.  One example: the COA’s recent findings that the allocation of P206 million from the pork barrel funds of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Senator Jinggoy Estrada,  Senator Ramon Revilla Jr.  and former Buhay party list Representative Rene Velarde  benefited a fake non-government organization through the Department of Agriculture.  When questioned by the media, the senators criticized the timing of the report, or feigned innocence and outrage. So where is the accountability in all this? 

Like so many other citizens, I oppose the existence of the pork barrel because, apart from opportunities for malfeasance, it promotes political patronage which hinders true political reform. I am hardly the first to have made such an observation, but the pork barrel is perhaps the most blatant example of how tax revenue should not be spent.  Our lawmakers defend the pork barrel because they say it benefits the poor.  In effect, the pork barrel provides dole-outs, some of which may reach the poorest of the poor.  But obviously, it creates a cycle of dependency. The poor go to politicians so that some of their basic needs at least may be served.  They say that poverty demands the continued existence of the pork barrel.  But wouldn’t it be more forward-looking if the President used the money directly for initiatives to drive economic development, such as putting more resources into education and ensuring a healthy business climate to provide more jobs for people? That direction would be more fitting for the son of the two most prominent political icons of our society. Instead, he substantially increased the pork barrel which, like it or not, offers cause for corruption and the perpetuation of political patronage. 

Although the government has the mandate and responsibility to ensure proper collection of taxes, taxpayers should have every right to a meaningful accounting of how their money is spent.  Addressing poverty alleviation and the reduction of socio-economic inequality are a fundamental challenge that have stared Filipinos in the face for the longest time. The public sector with its powers is necessarily the best driver of social, political and economic change, particularly because it controls policymaking as well as the single biggest collection of resources in the country. 

So a fundamental change should not only be the significant improvement of revenue collection. Just as importantly - and this is hardly a novel thought – perhaps it’s high time we revisit the idea of overhauling the system by which government allocates and spends revenue. But it is a relevant thought, if we are to be reminded to pay taxes and to pay them correctly, as Pres. Aquino did at the FFCCCII.

The more responsible spending of public revenue by all branches and sectors of government calls for strong political will on the part of our president, who is known for his rallying cry of “matuwid na daan.” The appropriate payment of taxes, and not only by certain segments of the business community, must come with the public sector spending tax revenue efficiently and with greater transparency. If such a balance were to be achieved, it would be one of our most important political and institutional reforms. Maybe then Juan de la Cruz might start to feel the benefits of the growth in GDP that our government is so proud of. 

The Forbidden Rice

I have always been an avid eater.  And like most Filipinos, I love my rice.

Two years ago, I was seated beside the owner of Dona Maria on a flight to China.  We became fast friends.  Since then, I started eating Dona Maria rice.   When I needed to watch my weight, I switched to brown rice, and I still bought the Dona Maria brand.

But one time,  I needed to bring rice on a beach trip.  I fancied bringing one that is resealable for easy storage.  The brand was japanese, but its brown rice.  When I started cooking that rice in a swampy place beside the beach, the smell was so fragrant that it got the attention of everyone.  It was so soft and fluffy.  So it's no surprise that everyone had second helpings.. and third helpings.

When I came back to Manila and started eating Dona Maria rice again, I was not satisfied.   Suddenly Dona Maria's Jasponica Brown rice seemed bland and odorless , the usual expectation in any brown rice.  I panicked because my brown rice is about to get depleted.  I needed to buy something.  Anything!

My eyes chanced upon this small package.  Black rice?  What is that?  But I remember that when I visited Korea, all the restaurants offered this same black rice.  Should I try it?  Well... fine, I'll try it.  And to play it safe, I'd buy one of those nice japanese short grain rice, and cook the black and white rice together.

I used the black-white rice and wrapped them inside a seaweed, rolled it and popped them in my mouth.  YUM!  DELICIOUS!!!  The taste is quite addictive.

It says in the package that it is better than white rice, brown rice or red rice.

To learn more about what I'm eating, I googled this black rice and found this literature on it.  Read on.

"Highly treasured in ancient China, Black Rice was reserved exclusively for emperors and nobility as it was believed to ensure their good health and a long life. It became known as the “forbidden rice” as every grain was commandeered for royalty and all others were banned from eating it. Fortunately today it is available for everyone to enjoy the magnificent colour, taste and texture of this gourmet rice. 

A brilliant deep purple colour when cooked, Black Rice provides a beautiful contrast in meals and is an impressive addition to any dish. It has a delicious rich nutty taste and a chewy texture that suits a wide range of cuisines and dishes from a delicate pilaf to a summer salad or simply steamed on its own.
Black Rice is a wholegrain and has been referred to as a “super food”. It contains essential vitamins and minerals including Niacin, Thiamin and Magnesium as well as being a source of dietary fibre. Its delightful dark purple colour is due to natural anthocyanin which also gives blueberries and blackberries their dark colour.

Contains essential vitamins and minerals
Wholegrain and source of dietary fibre
Brilliant dark colour with rich nutty taste
Gluten and cholesterol free
Low in fat, sugar and salt   "

Investment Outlook for 2013 by HSBC

Once again, I was invited by HSBC for their bi-annual presentation of investment outlook.  Lunch served was better than before.  They served forest treasure parmesan with pear salad and berry compote,  Cod fish fillet wrapped in parma ham with pumpkin risotto and warm bread pudding for dessert.

I always look forward to attending their luncheon because I enjoy listening to Arjuna Mahendran, head of Investment Strategy.  He speaks eloquently and concisely.  His every sentence is filled with insights into the market and strategies.   But this time around, they got Jose Rasco to give some of his analysis and outlook on the U.S. market.

The following list is not complete but they were the ones that I remembered from the presentation.  So I call them my take home points. This is something that is retained in my brain for the rest of the year and serves as a good guide book for me:

1.  Three axioms in investing this year:
      a)  Dont chase growth:  Emerging market consumers are fickle.  What drives the prices is not growth but liquidity from the quantitative easing of central banks last year.  Remember the lesson of Apple, which hit $700 but is now trading at $500 level.

     b)  Carry on with carry trades:  Western central banks will print more money.  So continue to borrow low cost money to invest.  
     
     c)  Invest in emerging market de-coupling through first world first rate companies.   BRICs will struggle to cope with inflation.  Instead, look at large emerging market companies with long history of stability.  These are the companies that will have minimal impact on economic shocks.

2.  Inflation:  China (and other BRICS) will continue to confront the inflation threat.

3.  Income growth:  Chinese wages are rising.   Southeast asia is blessed with crude oil, minerals and food crops.  Luxury goods will continue to feed the growing emerging markets income gap.  

4.  Debt is doing better than equity.   Look at the graph below.  The green line is the EM bond index, while the blue line is the MSCI world index.

      

    Midcap seems to be doing better than large caps.  The graph below is the comparison of S&P 500 and S&P midcap


5.  Infrastructure
     Urbanization in China causes them to focus on social infrastructure such as healthcare and pharmaceuticals, much like the U.S. many years ago.

6.  Quantitative easing in US will continue until inflation reaches 2.5% and unemployment hits 6% which will not happen in 2013.   US employment may be rising but not enough.  US economic activity is still below potential and labour market hardly recovered from the last recession.  Home sales have been steadily rising but most of it comes from foreign buyers.  Home inventories are going down though.

7.  Latin America corporate bond market is another viable investment vehicle.  Even if you cut their cash in half, these companies will continue to function well, thereby showing us how strong their balance sheets are.  In fact, 73% of their papers are investment grade, which makes Latin American debt market a very  good option to add to your portfolio.

8.  Fearless forecast on the Peso.  39.50 by end of 2013.   39 by end of 2014.

Winter Christmas at Alpensia Ski Resort (in Pyeongchang)

When my kids ask me for something, I try very hard to deliver.  It can sometimes become difficult when they ask for something that involves a lot of cash.  I'm financially limited.  But I have a very positive mind.  I always believe that the world is for everyone, and we only have to be creative to achieve what we want.  In this case, my kids want to experience a white christmas.

The immediate choice was Korea.  We have only a handful of countries in Asia with a white christmas.    I prefer Japan but I know everything there is costly, so I settled for Korea.  The harder part to decide is on which ski resort I will go to.  There are approximately 17 ski resorts in South Korea.   But since I'm bringing toddlers, my criteria are quite different from the usual tourists.

Criteria:
1.  Slopes should be very very near the hotel.  I don't want to walk far just to enjoy the slopes.
2.  The resort shouldn't have any dormitories so that the slopes wouldn't be filled with students and backpackers.  Accidents are more likely to happen when there are too many people in the resort.
3.  Hotel should be at least 4 star.  I know I'm on budget, but I'm also on vacation... with kids!
4.  The resort should have affordable eateries nearby.
5.  My hotel room should have the view of the slopes.  If I'm going on a winter vacation, I want to be reminded of that for 24 hours.
6.  I was hoping for a hotel accommodation at the $200 range per day.
7.  Wifi available.

View from our balcony

After researching on the ski resorts in South Korea, I finally decided on Alpensia.  This ski resort offers only three hotels:  Intercontinental, Holiday Inn Resorts and Holiday Inn Suites.  Intercontinental is out of the question because its standard room is pegged at $500 per night.  Ouch!   Holiday Inn Resorts costs $220 per night and Holiday Inn Suites offers $180 per night.   My first choice was Holiday Inn Suites but I realized that it only offers smoking rooms.  So, I finally settled with Holiday Inn Resorts.

This resort is accessible from Seoul and from the airport.   You only need to go to Gate #9C in Incheon Airport.  They shuttle guests straight to the resort twice daily:  9:30 and 16:30.  Cost is 26,000 won for adults and kids get 50% off.  Travel time is 3.5 hours.

Our room at Holiday Inn Resorts

The bus dropped us in the welcome center of Holiday Inn.  I have to walk for 5 minutes to go to my hotel.  But it was just fine.  Upon entering the lobby, we were greeted by smiling, pretty receptionist.  I quickly showed my booking confirmation.  I merely booked a standard room since it's the only one I can afford.  But my kids were sticking on me like glue.  So the receptionist asked how many kids I brought along.  I said TWO.   She said, "Well you are not going to be comfortable in this standard room."  I replied, "It's ok.  I got a king-sized bed.  That is just fine.".  She remarked "WHy don't I just give you this nicer room.  It has a kids' nook that provides bunker bed for kids, and a king size bed for you and your husband. "  Of course, I knew about that type of room.  I just didn't book it because it cost a lot lot more.  When I didn't say anything, she was sensitive enough to understand my plight.  She quickly said "The upgrade is free of charge.  Don't worry about it.  I'll arrange everything." .  My! She isn't just pretty, she is ultra-nice too!   I quipped, "How can I say NO to that kind of offer?  Thanks very much! "

When we entered the room, it was really really nice! I super love the kids' nook.  They decorated it for kids and it even has its own heater.   They have their own writing desk and a bug light.  Nice!

The room is cozy and it has a balcony overlooking the beautiful slopes of the resort.  Five Thumbs Up!

Playground in Alpensia Pyeongchang

 Alpensia Ski Resort is like a town.  It has a number of convenience stores, a lot of restaurants that provide different cuisine.  There is Lotteria, their own version of McDonald's, and Angel in us coffee shop, just like our Starbucks.  They have a cafeteria inside the Ski House which is located just beside our hotel.  They have a number of fine dining too.   There's Ocean 700 , their indoor water park which I think would be great for the summer.  They have playground with swings and slides.  They have the Eco-Learning Center to educate our kids to love nature.  If your kids do not know how to ski, they offer tutorial.  It's just a bit pricey if you are not in a group.  220,000 won for two kids.  So in my case, I preferred my kids to stay ignorant on skiing ---- for now.  I promised them they can learn to ski on our next visit.  For the adults, they have golf course, skiing and snow boarding.  They have alpine coaster that looks like fun, but I never got the chance to try it.  What we did for two full days was to snow sled.  The kids simply loved their snow sledding park.  It has a downhill distance of 130 meters, with a width of 52 meters.   It can take around 8 sledders all at the same time.   And your kids do not need to walk up the hill , just to snow sled down again.  They have a moving walker especially for snow sledders.   3 hours of non stop sledding would cost 15,000 won.


We only spent four days in this resort and we headed back to Seoul.  When I was planning this trip, many warned me that I was allotting too many days in one place.  Glad I didn't heed their warning.  It was with a heavy heart that I left this wonderful resort.  My younger child even shed some tears  as our bus was leaving the place.   I was only able to appease her when I promise her we would come back to Alpensia.  And we would.  We surely would.

Gastronomic Delights in Hong Kong

I spent last weekend in hong kong with my sister and mother.  They invited me for some quick bonding time and I took this chance to do some shopping and to dine at good restaurants.  But this time around, I want to sample dishes that won't just satisfy me, I want dishes that would delight me.

Let me share to you my list.

1. Hutong

              Cuisine:   Beijing 

              Location:  28th Floor, 1 Peking Road

              Prices:    approximately HK$500 - 800 per person

              Attire:  Cocktail dresses 

           Let me start by saying , if you want to impress your date, bring her to Hutong.  Upon entering this place, you will be greeted by dark interiors that are only lit by red lanterns.  Wooden furnitures speak of old China and even the bathroom was not spared to transport us all back to ancient China (Imagine having no doorknobs to lock the bathroom door and no modern faucet to wash your hands).  The architecture of the place is very dramatic.  It's basically a dark place and the only lights are coming from the city's night lights visible in the large glass windows all around the place, punctuated with romantic red lights from the paper lanterns hanging above the tables.  The 

food is no less impressive.  They have infused modern twists to the otherwise tried and tested chinese menu.  Roasted duck became crispy duck, reminiscent of our famous lechon kawali.  Spicy prawns were prawns sauteed in flavorful variety of chili not found in manila.  They are not just adventurous with traditional cuisine, they excel on their brave efforts.   This is one restaurant where it would be appropriate to steal a sweet kiss from your date without feeling shy about it.  The place just demands it.  So, if you want to seal the deal, prepare to spend a few more bucks than usual and I can almost guarantee a happy ending.

        Oh please, reserve well in advance.  

  2.    NOBU 

            Cuisine :  Japanese

            Address:   Hotel intercontinental in Salisbury Road

            Prices :  approximately HK$1000  per person

            Attire:  Smart Casual

      I know the price is gastronomical.  But I can also assure you that their food will also bring you to new heights.  For Japanese cuisine lovers, this is a "must" place.   It is rare for me to find chef who prepares meals that would make me guess to no end what ingredients they used that resulted to such unique and yet exquisite taste.  Let me give you an example.  I started with Spinach Salad.  I expected Spinach and some dressing.   What came out was a normal enough looking Spinach salad.  But when I took a bite of it, I detected hints of blue cheese (and yet, not exactly blue cheese) and some bits of bacon (this came to me after 72 hours of wondering) that you can hardly guess

 because the bacon was broken into very small pieces, similar to the size of rock salts, and was thrown in very sparingly.  The rock prawn salad is another must.  Most chef just rely on the natural sweetness of prawns.  This dish, however, threw in some hints of lemon and some other ingredient that resulted in rock prawn salad that tempts the mouth for more.   I embarrassingly got most of it.  Good thing I'm just with my family who understands my bouts of gluttony.   Gindara is wonderfully done.  Lobster tempura was nothing fancy. But their steak made me close my eyes in sweet surrender.   Oh man, the steak literally melted in my mouth like freshly churned butter.  It transforms any man into a beast whose instincts comes into fore in the face of such goodness.    

My choice of beverage is this cocktail drink that mixes champagne with sake. I always like this combination.   Too bad, the name escapes me, but it sounded like Saketini. 

3.  The Press Room

         Cuisine:  French Brasserie 

         Address:  108 Hollywood Road

         Prices:  approximately HK$400

         Attire:   Casual

        This french brasserie was recommended to me by the Hong Kong bankers.  This edgy and modern restaurant is the answer to many expats in the area.   They serve simple continental fare in a no nonsense comfortable atmosphere.  Their edge is that they use the freshest ingredients and offer a wide selection of good wines.   I had scallop salad, and was it a yummy treat for me in that busy mid noon.  My brother in law had their lobster sandwich before and swears by its goodness.  This place is great for lunch with friends or casual dates (unlike here in Manila, where casual dates would mean meeting in starbucks.  Casual dates can still be impressive without the intimidating setting.  But it does not necessarily mean being cheap.)  

4.   Cafe Cova

         Cuisine:  Afternoon Tea

         Address:  High end malls

         Price:  HK$150  per person

         Attire:  Casual

        I am not fond of cakes.  But I make the exception when I find the time to have an afternoon tea at Cova.  After shopping nonstop at the mall, this classy italian place brings refuge to our tired feet.  Cake is truly truly wonderful here.  My favorite is the Mango Cake , but the Tiramiso cake is not a far second.  I never finish a slice of cake in Manila , but I can eat both cakes in one sitting. 

5.  Butao Ramen - Universal Noodles

       Cuisine:  Ramen 

       Address:   Lan Kwai Fong, Central

       Price:  HK$80 per Ramen

      Attire:  Very very casual

 

      This small and obscure ramen house only has four items in their menu and they are all ramen:  classic, spicy, squid-ink, and the other I do not understand.  The place is not conducive for eating and pleasant conversation.  It is hot and in need for some ventilation.  Nevertheless, this unassuming ramen house ALWAYS has long lines outside its place.  So, I chose to stand in line as well.  The waiter gave everyone a piece of paper.  Each diner needs to decide the following: which of the 4 ramen to order, the hardness of the noodle, the type of noodle, the richness of the broth, the spiciness of the broth, the condiments inside the noodles, chinese cabbage or spring onions?, with or without pork, which part of the pork.  Each question strives to bring you the most perfect ramen suited to your taste.   And boy, did they deliver.  Now I fully understand why locals choose to line up early to dine at this ramen house.   The noodles itself are yummy.  The broth is so flavorful and rich.  And do not ever miss ordering the extra egg (even if you are watching your calorie intake)  ORDER THE EGG.  They marinate the egg in Sake, Miren and some soy sauce, steamed in an already cooked rice (to make sure the steaming of the egg will be very very slow)  This results in a very soft, super yummy, major major yummy egg.

      This is the best ramen in Hong Kong, and that kind of claim is not to be taken lightly.  

 

             

** I wanted so much to dine at Tim's Kitchen.  I heard high praises about this michelin star restaurant.  Unfortunately, I was outvoted.  My companions preferred to shop than to eat.  Oh well....  this is for my next visit to Hong Kong.