Investment Outlook 2012 by HSBC

I just attended the Investment Outlook held by HSBC in Makati Shangrila Hotel semi-annually.  And once again, I was served salmon tartine with a sweet slice of pineapple and bits of pear on top for appetizer,  tender juicy chicken breast for main course, and chocolate mouse with hints of nuts and strawberries for dessert.

Highlights of the luncheon seminar.

1)  More european countries are facing downgrades this year.  We are seeing more negative growth in this region.  It does not help that their debt % to GDP are fast rising.  The root problem of EU countries is the very expensive labor costs, save for Germany.  Just for comparison, if US is 100, EU is priced at 140 and Philippines is less than 10.  This would mean their exports won't be competitive and would create a lag on their manufacturing sector.

2)  Indonesia has been upgraded to investment grade and Philippines is not far behind.  We are expecting Philippines to be upgraded to investment grade as well, due to its resilient economy and population.  If that happens, there will much capital inflow as funds will be diverted to our country and will do great to our economy.

3)  In the U.S., when GDP is low (less than 2.5%) , equity and bond yields are almost the same.  The U.S. stocks are currently expensive.  Some good buys are MCDonalds and Nike.

4)  China will experience a surge in their equity market due to change in leadership that will happen in the 4th quarter of this year.

5)  Many may think Germany is well and good right now.  But some warning signs come from the rising debt % of GDP, as compared to the debt % of GDP of Scandinavian countries, which are sloping downwards.

6) Expect gold prices to go down.  The 4th largest holder of gold is Italy.  And Italy may resort to using their gold to solve its debt problems.  Gold is a good buy at 1500 level.

7)  Choose currencies that have low debt % to GDP because these are the economies that will prove resilient to market volatility like AU$.

ROP 37: A No-Brainer Investment

I have been investing for many years now.  I am a believer of investing in the stock market, because like everyone else, I like to see my money grow.    But one problem in investing in stocks is the scary fluctuations.  It's not a friend that will be by your side when crisis hits Wall Street.   Gone are the days when one only needs to invest in blue-chip companies to get a goodnight sleep.  No thanks to the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 that brought the giants like Citigroup and Bank of America to its knees.

But one investment has stood strong and mighty in my portfolio.  And that is the ROP bonds I hold.  I currently have ROP 34 bonds with a coupon of 6.375%.  I bought them when bonds are in all time low and ROP 34 was selling at 91.   I bought it again when it was at 95  and another one when it was at 98.   All this time, when investment portfolios are typically wavering in negative and zero profit, my ROP bonds held true and provided me with a 6.375% interests per year.  And most important of all, it is now trading at 119.50.   This means , that for every ROP 34 bond I have that I bought for $91,000,  $95,000 and $98,000 respectively, I would get $119,500 for every bond I decide to sell.    Now, that's pretty neat, isn't it?

When I realized how good my ROP was for my portfolio, I started looking at ALL the series of ROP and see which ones I can still get for a discount.  Im biased towards getting bonds priced at 100 and below.  But alas, I was not so fortunate.  ROP bonds are quite in demand and all series were selling above 100.  I decided to wait.

And so now, my wait is over.  The Philippine government decided to issue $1.5B global bonds with a coupon rate of 5% and maturity on January 2037.   It is currently priced at 100.50.  And you must buy two.  It's one of the quirks of this bond.  Nevertheless, I know a good investment when I see one.  I quickly called my local bank and booked 2 bonds worth $201,000.

I don't even have to keep my fingers crossed.

HI TECH PHARMACAL: A Growth Stock to Watch Out For

If you visit your bank account officer, chances are she would recommend investing in bonds and other deposit products.   Times are truly crazy.  The fluctuations in the market will drive any risk manager into the edge of their seats.


But I still believe in investing in stocks.  This is where you truly make money.  It just becomes doubly hard to find that stock that can beat the market.  It is during this time that we look for a growth stock.


Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. (HITK) manufactures prescription and over-the-counter generic and branded pharmaceuticals in liquid and semi-solid dosage forms. The Company also manufactures sterile ophthalmic, otic, and inhalation products and provides sterile manufacturing contract services. Hi-Tech markets its own products under names such as H-T, Rx Choice, DiabetiDerm, and Steri-Optics. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Generic drug industry are expected to experience a boom in the next five years, when many of the popular patented drugs are about to expire.  In 2011, $15B of value in drugs will be off the patent cliff.  In 2012,  $33B of value in drugs will be open to the generic drug makers like HITK.  In the next five years, a total of $133B of value in drugs sale would be up for grabs by generic drug makers in the United States alone.  This will open a lot of opportunity for revenue growth for companies like HITK.

Hi Tech Pharmacal has a healthy balance sheet with a current ratio of 8 and $32M in cash.  It has a current P/E ratio of 10.21 when sector's P/E is averaging at 15.53.  It's 52 week range is from 18.68 to 44.58 and the trend is mostly upward, reflecting the continuing revenue growth of this company. 

As of now, HITK has 16 products pending approval to the FDA which would spell $1B annual sales and another batch of 20 products that are about to be submitted to the FDA which would translate to $3B in annual sales. 

HITK is more of a family managed business, with the Seltzer brothers (David and Ruben) holding around 22% of HITK shares.  But this firm is not hounded by the weakness of the usual family business.  They have a history of acting in the interest of the shareholders.  In 2007, HITK acquired Midlothian Laboratories that resulted in declining sales.  Most acquiring firms would choose to save face and justify their acquisition with empire building objectives.  Instead, the Seltzer brothers decided to dispose of this firm, putting the value of the shareholders on top of their priority list. 

Let's discuss some value metric that I obtained from the analyst Steven Roge. HITK's 5 year total EVA (economic value added) is $6.88 M , compared to $2.52M for Forest Labs and $1.40M for Teva and $154M for Perrigo.  But HITK trades at a lower P/E ratio at 10, compared to the others. Perrigo, for example, has a P/E ratio of 25.  Analysts forecast a 28% drop in earnings this year, and will proceed to have earnings growth of 13.7% in the following four years, on the basis of patent expirations of blockbuster drugs.  At the end of five years, HITK is expected to have a P/E ratio of 16. 

JP Morgan: a Fortress of a Balance Sheet

JP Morgan caught my eye following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008.   While large icons in the banking industry like Citibank ran for cover, JP Morgan stood tall among its peers. Like a true gentleman that knew it had prepared well for the coming storm.

One of the positive effects of a market crisis is that it brings to light bad practices of companies - heavy risk taking, shifting questionable assets,  and loose controls among others.  In my mind, only JP Morgan stood the test.  Big thanks to its leader Jamie Dimon. While its peers concentrated on gaining profit after profit without giving much thought to risk management pre-Lehman times, Jamie concentrated on creating a "fortress balance sheet". He consolidated its operations with a focus on profitability but all the while with an eye on risk control on each of the bank's individual business lines.  And his efforts were rewarded when  the most serious financial crisis of our time hit the streets. Although JP Morgan also partook of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a lifeline offered by the U.S. government to ailing banks, it was also FIRST to pay its loan back.  Many in the industry guessed that JP Morgan only took the handout to avoid being put in the spotlight.  (Imagine, all its peers are taking a loan from the government except them. That would draw a lot of attention to them and may attract the bureaucrats to audit them needlessly) .  It was also the FIRST bank to raise its dividend payout to investors after the Lehman crisis.

But its stock price still took a hit in 2008, just like all the banks in the U.S.. Many institutional investors, controlled and regulated by their own internal policies, were forced to sell their bank stocks. So when JP Morgan was selling below 20, I knew in my heart it was an irresistible bargain. Unfortunately, I didn't have a brokerage account then.  I just had it now and I'm buying at $28 - by all means still a bargain in my mind.

It is not immune to the industry's ills, however. Like its peers, the bank is plagued by weak consumer loans, exposure to the troubled European notes (though limited to only $15B), and low investment banking activities. All these are causing some strain on the bank's bottom line.  Still, the bank reported  $4.3billion in gains in the 3rd quarter  ($1.02 per share) on the back of robust growth in commercial loans.

 JP Morgan remains well-capitalized. It has enough  resources to withstand another recession if it comes.  Its leader, Jamie Dimon, has transformed the bank into the most integrated and well-managed financial powerhouse it is today, and his keen attention to detail and long-term strategic thinking will ensure that JP Morgan retains its pre-eminent status well into the future.

Bank of America: To Buy or Not to Buy

Bank of America closed at $5.49 today.

Im so tempted to buy it.  But let's review its fundamentals to put our decisions in line.


  BofA is one of the largest financial institution in the U.S. and of the world.  Its size can be viewed both as an opportunity and a problem.  It offers a wide spectrum of services and products from asset management, consumer loans to wealth management and investment banking.  It means they can very well execute economies of scale and achieve cost advantages.  But then historically, institutions of this size have proven difficult to manage , and what's dragging the BofA further down is its $2 trillion in mortgages when it acquired Countrywide in 2008.

   BofA needs to raise capital for the next several years to comply with Basel III.   As of June 30,2011, BofA's balance sheet held $1.4 trillion in risk-weighted assets, with only $115 billion in Tier 1 common capital.  Risk-weighted assets will increase substantially under Basel III, while certain items will be deducted from capital.  These changes will reduce the company's 8.2% Tier 1 common equity ratio, making it harder for the company to reach the 9.5% + ratio it hopes to achieve.

  Finally, aside from BofA's problems of possible legal claims and erosion of capital (which  are considered serious even when operating in a stable market environment), the bank is facing the same headwinds as other financial institutions.  Demand for loans remains weak.    Low, flat yield curve would result to lower interest margins.  And its wide consumer base makes it vulnerable to the continued deleveraging in the U.S..

   But looking at the charts, it is at its lowest range now.  And its P/E ratio is at 3, compared to the P/E ratio of its peers at 9.  This stock is indeed cheap now.  But should you decide to invest in BofA stock, prepare yourself for a rough roller coaster ride.  Every time there is a court battle over the mortgage claims of investors, this stock will dive.  And then at quarter end, when it announces its earnings, its price will rise again.  Some would see this as a frightful scenario, especially if you start computing its financial ratios that include the standard deviation.  But for some, this is an opportunity to make some money.  

   Good luck!

In the Sands of Misibis Bay

I always love the beach.  It gives me a sense of tranquility that I cannot find in this urban jungle.  Looking at the sky and the waves of the sea just reminds us that we are just one of God's creation.   So when I got a call inviting me to Misibis Bay, it didn't take me long to decide to go with them.

Mt. Mayon

Going there was quite exhausting.  After boarding a 1 hour flight, we rode a van for another hour going to the Pier, cross the sea for 15 minutes in a speedboat, and take another 20 minute winding ride to the resort.  The trip is not for the disabled. There were instances we have to hike up and down crude stairs with steps that were just 1/2 inch wide and are so steep , estimating to be at around 70 degrees angle.

bedroom

The staff were commendable.  They really serve you the extra mile.  I have been terribly spoilt by the staff.  They gave us fruit platters in our rooms every night.  Sometimes, they surprised us with burgers for the kids. If I just hinted to the staff that I fancied a particular dish, I could readily expect it to see in my room later.  And any request for extra towels and amenities were given with that big smile on their faces.

The rooms are beautifully done in modern asian theme.   They have the beds overlooking the sea.  And they have the day beds overlooking the infinity pool and the sea.  They even have Salvatore Ferragamo toiletries. How swanky can one get!

But the beach was a bit disappointing to me.  I was expecting white sandy beach. Instead I got yellow sand with little rocks on the shore.  And the beach needs to be cleaned regularly by the staff.  I saw empty soda cans in the beach premises.  You never get to see that in Amanpulo.

The pools are magnificent!  You would never experience crowding in the pool.  The pools on the entrance are long and winding , which reminds us of the pool in Sofitel , except that theirs are longer and cleaner with lounge chairs in the middle of the pool.  Nice!  And the pool in front of the beach is their crown jewel.  It is amazing to be swimming in that pool, overlooking the beach and the sky.  And when you get tired of swimming, just hang out in the pool bar located inside the pool too.    As if that weren't enough, our room comes with our own infinity pool.  Small and yet exclusively yours and also overlooking the beach.

It was also a bit monotonous to be eating at the same place every day, three times a day.  The resort only has one restaurant.  Good thing our room comes with a spacious balcony with a view of the sea. So on our second day, we asked the waiter to set up our meals there.    The food is reasonably priced and is cooked well.   They make good Sinigang na Hipon, laing and their pastas are quite good too.  My personal favorite is the pizza "caraguay".  That's their own rendition of pizza with laing and binangoonang baboy and hard boiled eggs.  One thing I noticed though is that they lack consistency in their quality of food.  The pinakbet today will be very different from the pinakbet tomorrow.


Now, let's talk about the rates.  It's expensive. I don't think anybody will argue with that.


Room Rates:
Standard              Garden View                   for 2 persons           13,800
Poolside               Junior Suite Deluxe          for 3 persons            18,800
                             Premiere Villa                   for 3 persons            18,800
                             One Bedroom Deluxe       for 4 persons            26,800
                             One Bedroom Premiere     for 4 persons            33,800
Beachfront          Junior Suite Premiere        for 3 persons            22,800
                            One Bedroom Luxury       for 4 persons            30,800
                             Luxury Villa                      for 3 persons            40,800


So, after indulging in this resort for 4 days and 3 nights, do I want to go back?  Yeah sure, if it's for free.  Or if it's offered to me at half its rack rates.  But considering the price and the place, I'd rather take my money to Amanpulo, where the beach is white and sandy, provides me with more exclusivity and consistency in the service, and a more relaxing trip going there.

Amanpulo: My Own Piece of Heaven

Just like any typical Filipino, I have my own share of visiting the various beach resorts our beautiful country has to offer.  

But nothing , and absolutely nothing truly beats the experience of being a guest of Amanpulo in Palawan.

Amanpulo has its own charter flights.  Remember the planes of Indiana Jones?  Well... it's something like that.  You would most likely fly with around 10 people and the rest are supplies to be flown to the island.  There is a lounge where you can wait for your plane and it boasts of a good supply of drinks and pica-pica and a very spacious and luxurious bathrooms, with a functional aircon and a relaxing music.

Upon embarking, you will all be warmly greeted by the staff of Amanpulo. And each family will have its own golf cart so you can be mobile while you stay in the island.   But the beauty of it is when you open your room for the first time.  Cold aircon will greet you with the fragrant smell of flowers and relaxing harp music surrounds the room.  By the way, they use BOSE products to play the harp music in your room.  And the bed is soooo BIG.  Since Im big, I really do appreciate a king-sized bed.  The bathroom is also so spacious, compared to the average bathroom in hotels, that my maid can place her bed inside the bathroom and she is still comfortable.  The bathroom has a bathtub and a table at the center to highlight the orchids elegantly displayed.  But what touched me was when they knew I was bringing my kids.  Kids are free of charge so I brought my 2 toddlers with me.  They prepared their arrival.  They put Graco cribs and playpen.  They put lots of coloring books and activity books on the table beside our bed.  There were even balloons for my kids in the bedroom.  And upon our doorstep, there is a stroller waiting for us. Such keen attention to guests who are there for free...  that truly touched me deep down in my heart.  So unexpected!


At the back of our casita are 2 daybeds and a duyan for anyone who wants to rest outside the airconditioned room and enjoy the fresh breeze from the sea,  Then walking for a few more steps, you are already on the beach.  The casitas are actually on the beach already , separated only by shrubs from the sea.  The beach is simply MAGNIFICENT!  Truly, nothing can compare it. Not even the famous Boracay.  The sand is so fine and so white.    And the water is so blue and clear.  Hardly can you see anyone in sight.   Which brings me to my next topic.

Yes, guys and gals, you can have sex on the beach.  You are allowed to have sex on the beach, on the shrubs , in the swimming pool, in the daybeds, under the stars.  The staff at Amanpulo are trained to look the "other way".   Did I ever try it?  Almost.  I started undressing my top , then my bikini, But my partner balked at the idea of being all naked in the very open beach, that he put his penis under the sand and never came out.   And I remember he kept shrieking "Someone might see us! Dress up! Oh no, I think I hear someone coming."  In the end, I gave up and we just played with the baby sharks located at the far end of the beach.  But well.. I didn't put back my top on.  It was just too liberating to be topless at a beach.   Just that my partner was in constant agony that I will be seen by a living person.  Who cares?

If you are lucky, the management of Amanpulo will hold a BBQ dinner buffet to be held at the beach.  This is reminiscent of my days in Hawaii. While the sun is setting , you are lulled by the sea breeze and the sweet music of guitar.  

The library was a haven by itself, especially to a bookworm like me.  They have a good collection of books, DVDs, newspapers and they have a computer with internet connection for anyone to use.

But what makes Amanpulo occupy a special place in my heart is that I have come to depend on it as my go-to place whenever I need some time alone.    When I was still single, our family never fails to go to Amanpulo at least once a year.  It was our time to get away from it all.  When we have personal problems, mom's answer to that is a trip to Amanpulo to give us time to ponder on our doubts and fears.   When I was pounding my head on the numerous formula I have to memorize in preparation for my CFA licensure exams, mom brought me to Amanpulo so I can really concentrate on studying.  And when my sister was about to get married, mom also escaped in Amanpulo to accept that my sister is going to live away from us.  Fact is, my second child learned to first walk in Amanpulo!

Now, it's been 4 years since I stepped on the fine sands of Amanpulo.   I miss that place! I checked out their prices today expecting a lower rate due to the rainy months. They quoted me P 34,990 per night.  Minimum of 2 nights. And if I remember it right, the charter plane is $275 per person.

Ohhhh, Im so tempted.

So, Where Do We Invest Now?

When I woke up this morning, I witnessed the faster-than-gravity falling of the stock markets all over the world.

But while everyone is trying to sell off their stock holdings, I was looking around for bargain hunting.

Top of my list is :

1)  HSBC -  this bank is the number 1 bank in the world during the Lehman crisis that shook the world in 2008.  This is very significant to investors like me.  IT means that this bank has made it well during crisis, it means that they have done due diligence during the good days compared to other global banks. Im buying this at $70.

2) Bank of China -  Bank of china is one of the biggest bank in China. They own majority of the shares of Chiyubank and has performed nicely in the previous years.  Their books look good.  Banks in china are government controlled, and I do believe the China government will not leave this bank in shambles.  Besides, the treasure chest of China is just overflowing.  I may buy this at $3 - $3.10

3)  Odyssey Asia Pacific High Dividend Fund -  Majority of this fund has exposure to Australian stocks and it closely resembles MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan.  I like this fund because , not only do you gain profit from the blue chip companies of Australia, you also gain from their currency valuation.   I previously bought this at the low of 9.2.  Sold it at 10+.    It went as high as 10.8.    Now, I like to buy more at 9 to 9.3.   There are companies in Asia  that are undervalued and badly influenced by the U.S. Economic crisis.  When the crisis subsides, these companies will be up for grabs again by investors.  Minimum investment is $5000.

4) Pictet Premium Brands -  People will always be greedy.  People will always want to keep up with the Jones'.  So here's a toast to them.  To all the wives who purchased those $10,000 worth of Hermes bag, and to all the men who purchase those $2,000 worth of LV bags for their mistresses, let the insanity of materialism ensnare you to continue filling up the pockets of the investors.  And for us , little investors, let us take the crumbs of profits from the investors by investing in funds with exposure to luxury brands like hermes, LVs, BMW, etc. at Pictet Premium Brands.  Minimum investment is $1000. Let's buy this at 100.

5)  Value Partners High Dividend Stocks Fund - this fund is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and invests primarily in a portfolio of relatively higher yielding debt and equity securities in the Asian region.  This was given a 5 star rating by Morning Star.  Minimum investment is $10,000.  Let's buy this at $50-$52

Elbert's Cheesesteak in Rockwell

Nothing de-stresses me better than a good Philly Cheesesteak, and for this purpose, Elbert's Cheesesteak located at the basement level of Rockwell Mall delivers.

I heard from the grapevine that their rendition of Philly Cheesesteak is superb!  So, one rainy Saturday afternoon, I went to Rockwell, got a seat and ordered their American Cheesesteak. It's 320 pesos and add another 80 pesos for fries and drinks (sola, minute maid or soda).   They have many types of Cheesesteak:  American, Provolone,  Pizza.  They also offer Burgers and Hotdogs. I asked the cashier what is their best-selling item and she said it's American Cheesesteak.  So that's what I ordered.  

I waited for around 10-15 minutes for my order to arrive.  Oh man, when I took my first bite, I had to close my eyes for the sheer pleasure of my palate.  It was served hot and fresh from the grill.   The beef was of good quality, which was a surprise for me.  In this country, Im used to being served with bad quality beef, especially if the beef is intended for just a sandwich.  But that's where Elbert's difference lies.  They use USDA beef, good quality stuff and eating their cheesesteak makes you realize that the price is just worth it.  The cheese just recently melted with the beef from the grill makes an excellent companion to the beef and bread.  They have a generous amount of onions in their cheesesteak which is just perfect for me.  

The fries was also perfection in itself.  I had a hard time deciding which I should put first in my mouth: the fries or my sandwich.  At that time, I wish I had the mouth of cookie monster so I can put it all inside and not miss a second of the pleasure it offers.

Maybe the only downside to eating in this joint is that you are seated at the mall with no privacy to speak of.    People ... no, the better word there is CROWD.  Imagine you are eating this great sandwich while the CROWD of mallers walk in and out, in and out, passing you by, looking at what you are eating, and let's not forget , we have to be double vigilant on those quick fingers.   So that part is a downer for me. 

The next day , I was craving for it again.  But I have to watch my weight now.  So I can just write about it and hopefully derive pleasure from people who can taste the same goodness as I did at Elbert's.

Of Being Heroic

I come from a family of firefighters --  volunteer firefighters.  Our living room is equipped with this black telephone that is off-limits to mindless chatterings because this is where they receive the calls for help.  It is a common occurrence for our family to gather around the living room on a typical Saturday night.  But when that phone rings, the men in our family would quickly don their firefighter uniforms and hard hats and go to the firetrucks which were conveniently parked in front of our ancestral home.

We were also used to deaths.  I lost my uncle while he was on duty.  The fire was supposed to be out and they would have called it a day.  But then a random fireball just came out of nowhere and hurled straight at his head.  His brains were all scattered on the streets.  He left 3 of my cousins without a dad.

I wanted to be a firefighter and join my cousins. But my parents prohibited me from being so.  Besides, there was no way the group would have accepted a girl as a firefighter.  So I have had to settle being left alone in that living room so many times when there was fire.  It was a pity that God blessed me with a big healthy strong body and yet, I cannot use it to serve my community.

How then do I serve my countrymen as  a girl?  Or am I forever condemned to stand near the hearth?  But God indeed has many ways to answer our prayers.

I do not have many talents and skills, but one thing I seem to do well was make babies and feed them with my own breastmilk.  How many times did I donate my breastmilk at Makati Medical Center?  Ondoy came. There was news that many babies are dying due to the contamination in the water served with the milk powder.  They were calling on new mothers to donate milk.  I tried not to heed this call because my own baby is premature and she came out weighing 3 pounds only.  The doctor said we cannot give her the usual OTC milk powder.   I must feed her with my breast milk if I want her to grow healthy.   So my first instinct was to keep my milk supply for my baby.  It didn't help that my own house was also affected by the Ondoy flood and water almost reached the 2nd floor of my house.   But the call to give was too strong for me to ignore any more.  And so I decided to produce more milk.  And boy did I deliver.  I was producing 25 oz of milk every 3 hours, 24/7.   That also meant no real sleep for me, just endless continuing naps.   Soon, my breasts were getting bigger and bigger, until my own husband got scared of how big they became.  They were like two bombs about to explode.   But I continued... sometimes crying on how grotesque my breasts have become.  Of course, I anticipated my breasts to really sag when I stop producing milk.  Finally, Ondoy subsided and victims found ways to live by the effects of Ondoy.  My baby reached 1 year old, and I can stop breastfeeding.  As anticipated, my breasts sag.  It looked worse than the breasts of my 90 year old grandmother.   I cried.  I was never a great beauty but I always had beautiful breasts that drove men wild.  And now, what's left of me are 2 breasts that looked like they were run over by an 18-wheeler truck.

So for many months, I refuse to look at the mirror.  I just accepted the reality of ugliness.  No regrets in that department.  But sometimes, I feel sad.  The little vanity that I have laments over the loss of my only claim to beauty.