Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Nokia: Struggling to be Alive

Nokia's story would have captured the imagination of any Hollywood producer.  Here is the protagonist, Nokia, who for years lived in a grand castle, supported by many, questioned by none.  Everybody acceded to their leadership in the rich land of mobile phones.  But all good stories must come to an end.  Apple came and snatched away Nokia's glory in the middle of the night. Nokia was caught off guard , that before it can cry FOUL , its fountain of wealth dried up and one by one, people started migrating to the kingdom ruled by Apple.  Nokia, in its last breath, refused to raise the white flag in surrender.  Instead, it brought forth its last remaining ammunition to win its people back, the Lumia.

Stock Price of Nokia in 5 years

Let's set things straight.  I don't need a crystal ball to declare that Nokia will never dominate the mobile handset industry ever again.  That's the sad thing about technology-based companies.  You just have to keep getting aggressive, quick to adapt to changes in user behavior, tapping your R&D resources to its fullest, just like Samsung, who seemed relentless in its pursuit of dominance in the smartphone users.  It will fight Apple in every nook it can find.  Because if you stop, you find yourself eating the dust of your competitors.

But the world is not painted black and white, at least not for this particular industry.  Nokia has other alternatives.  It painfully dropped its proprietary platform (Smart move!) and adapted Microsoft Windows to help in its difficult transition to smart phones.  Given that Windows has a lot of room for improvement, at least Nokia stood like a beacon in the sea of Android devices. But the one serious risk in the horizon is the non-exclusivity of using the Windows platform.  Soon enough, Nokia will find itself in a price war among other handset manufacturers using Windows.

One does not need half a brain to second-guess the strategy of Nokia.  Launch Lumia to cheaper price, hurting the gross margins in the process but the objective in this case is to gain the critical mass it sorely need at this point.  Once the switch has been made, they would hope that the users will get hooked to using Lumia with its windows platform.  And mobile users responded to this strategy.  Lumia sales reached 4 million units, doubling the first quarter unit sales.  And analysts are expecting sales to reach 12 million by year end.  We expect their lower-end phones would decline in the succeeding years, switching users to the higher priced Lumia.  Gross margin would suffer in the near term until it reaches a sufficient number of users and in a few years time, gross margin would level off to a more comfortable level.
Nokia's stock price in 5 days upon the release of 2nd quarter earnings

Nokia joined Microsoft in their battle against Android and IOS users.  It's an uphill battle.  And Nokia opened itself to more risks.  Without getting the exclusivity from using the Windows platform, Nokia's success would be short-lived.  Lumia's success would merely be the first wave of effort in trying to stay alive in this competitive industry.  Its success has surely caught the attention of other phone manufacturers, who as we speak, are already planning to snatch a piece of revenue from Nokia.  Nokia may just find itself sacrificing its margins now with no bright future to hold.

In this regard, I feel that Nokia's stock price has doubled in uncertainty.  Its future is blurry to me.   But at least it continues to be alive today.  They get to live another day with the launching of Lumia.  But they shouldn't rest on their laurels.  They have to go back to their desk and think what they need to do to secure their position in this fast-moving mobile phone industry.

So, did I buy Nokia stock?  Yes, I did, against the recommendation of all my friends.  "Are you nuts?", they said.  But what the heck, Im a sucker for those bullied.  And Apple and Samsung are bullies.  Once Apple launches its new Iphone on September 12 that promises to be very different from the current Iphone lines, its stock price would surely go up.  Samsung, on the other hand, seems to have King Midas as their financier.  They introduced phones after phones , trying to get all types of users out there who isn't hooked yet with the Iphone.

But Im no saint either.  I may well sell my Nokia stocks at the first sign of other phone manufacturers releasing their own Windows-based smart phones, or towards the 4th quarter of this year, if Nokia fails to show any concrete realistic plans in securing their position in the world of the mobile phones.






Saturday, July 21, 2012

The Dark Knight Rises Above All Expectations

Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises, truly rose above the expectation of fans who waited long enough for the finale of this trilogy.  Christian Bale continues to play as Batman in this series and we are not disappointed.

Eight years has passed and John Wayne is in recluse.  Batman has been blamed for the death of the D.A. Harvey Dent (from the previous franchise).   All is well, until a big bulky stronger-than-steel terrorist, Bane, had devious plans for the whole Gotham City.  This drove Batman to once again don the cape and mask to save the city he both hates and loves.

This time, The Dark Knight Rises, reflects a gloomier and darker city.  The huge figure of Bane with his scary masked face was a worthy opponent to the more menacing Batman.  Cat Woman, played perfectly by Anne Hathaway, is a welcome distraction and a great addition to the dark somber mood of the whole movie.  Her beautiful upturned face with her spandex suit plus high heeled boots successfully captivates the audience to be glued on the screen.  And the machines..... those wonderful toys of Bruce Wayne had my toes curled every time they go on screen.  They are so fantastic!   Those toys alone are enough to make it worth your while to go to the movie and line up for this final installment of Batman.   I have never seen anything like it, I swear!  But what makes this movie a brilliant piece is that it bravely dwells on the different psychologies of men:  motivational factors that make men do the impossible, the fear of facing death, embracing responsibilities and the balancing act of love for self and love for others. 

The movie is almost 3 hours long, but there was never a dull moment.  This finale of Christopher Nolan makes one want to beg for more.  But there is hope for all of us yet, as Robin is introduced at the conclusion of the movie.  

Five stars for this one! 



Monday, July 16, 2012

Rule Book for Mistresses

I'm not even sure why I am writing this.  I guess it comes from many many stories that I hear from men who keep mistresses.  As a good friend, they feel comfortable listing down their complaints about the wife, about the mistress, over a bottle of Black Label.  In due time, I formed my own conclusions regarding this very elusive and enigmatic affairs.


Rule #1  He will never leave his wife.  So please, stop wishing and hoping that it will happen.  If his wife dies, you also won't wish to be his wife because that means he will get another mistress to replace you.   Prince Charles is a rarity and more of an exception than the rule.

Rule #2  You can forget about the special holidays like Christmas day, Valentine's Day and his birthday.  Those are reserved for the wife.  The mistresses are relegated to the day after those special holidays.   Know your place and don't demand for the impossible.

Rule #3  Learn to save.  You are priced for what pleasurable diversion you can provide.  You are gifted with so many beautiful things .....  while you hold the attention of the man.  Accept these gifts with gratitude but don't squander it away.  Be wise and save for the day when he would cast you aside.

Rule #4   Don't nag.   You are the mistress and not the wife.  Let the wife worry about his eating habits and annoying behavior.  You are there to provide heavenly pleasure to your man, so stick to the plan.

Rule #5   Read.   He may find you very exciting as a sex partner.  But that too will get boring. You need to be able to connect him in another way than just the bedroom.  Update yourself regularly and he won't just have a relationship with your body, but with your mind as well.

Rule #6   Don't sleep with another man.  Boys don't share toys.  They hate it. It's a matter of principle.  They'd rather get a new mistress than continue sharing a girl with someone else.

Rule #7  Don't create scandals.  Mistresses are creatures of the dark.  They don't exist in polite society.  Stay that way.  You would occasionally want to be heard and to be known.  You want to be in your partner's side on that important event.  But restrain yourself.  Have the comfort in knowing you have his nights.  Don't ask for the day as well or you might find yourself with having none.

Rule #8  Don't ever ever think you have the upper hand.  Because you don't.   Don't raise your voice when he fails to show up  on your doorstep, or if he forgets your birthday.  There are many ways to skin a cat.  If he forgets an important date, merely poke on his guilt if you must, but don't scream or get into argument.  Focus on the bigger prize:  Him.   You really don't want to lose him over some dates, right?

Rule #9  Don't patronize what the wife has.  Don't go to the same hairdresser of his wife.  Stop fixating yourself to the wife.  She is not the "evil" one here.  Let's not forget you are the one trespassing to a marriage.  Keep a low profile. Stay humble.  Because once the wife gets wind up on the affair, you are signing your death warrant.

Rule #10  Be creative in bed.   Let's use what we learned in MBA: Utilize your competitive advantage.  Let's face it, 90% of the reason of your existence is because the wife sucks in bed.  This is your battleground.  Use it to your advantage.  

Rule #11  Men lie.   Surprise?  They tell you those horror stories about his wife.  Take it with a grain of salt.  They want to get you in bed, so they need to justify such actions.  They promised you they would leave their wives.  They won't.  They hardly do.  The more prominent and rich your boyfriend is, the higher the probability of him not leaving his wife.  High society has certain protocols, and this is one of them.  Don't believe me?  Just look at our line of senators and congressmen.  We can safely assume that most men there have mistresses.  Count which ones left their wives for their mistresses.  The more common story is that the wife leaves the politician-husband.  Fact is men value their name in society.  They can always get another mistress but they cannot restore their good reputation and the respect of their peers. 

Binondo Story #1

Like the St. Mary Mead of Miss Marple (author: Agatha Christie), Binondo is such a close and small community that everyone just knows everyone's life story.   And yet, one would be surprised at the extent of the complexities of human psychology that is displayed in such a small community.  I grew up in this place and have been privy to some of the sordid details of their lives.   Sometimes, it is a great advantage to be a child, because no one really notices  you and yet you notice everyone around you.

My ancestral home is a building with three floors.  The third floor is a flat that is available for rent.  One day, I was introduced to the new tenant named Carmen.   She is so fair and so intelligent.  She graduated summa cum laude and was a placer in CPA.  She is unmarried and yet I noticed a young Chinese man who visits her place every so often.  He is Ping, who lives a few houses from us.  He is like a Chinese actor in a Taiwanese soap opera.  He is very handsome and charming, the kind of man you dream about.  After much coaxing from the elders, I learned that Ping is married and Carmen is his mistress.  Carmen and Ping were high school sweethearts, but the mother of Ping refused Carmen as her daughter-in-law, so Ping married the girl of his mother's choice while continuing to have an affair with Carmen.

Carmen loved Ping very much.  She acted like his wife and catered to his every whim.   But in my young mind, I remember feeling she was way too fixated on her hatred towards the wife, calling her names and cursed her to eternity.   I didn't understand why she would hate the wife so much, when in fact, Carmen was the one "stealing" her husband.  She tried everything to ensure Ping would love her above his wife , even resorting to black magic.

One day, I noticed Ping didn't visit Carmen for some time.  I asked and Carmen said Ping was attending a seminar in HongKong.   Coincidence that I have a scheduled vacation in HongKong with my mom as well.  And in one of the malls, we bumped into Ping, with his hands around the shoulders of his very pregnant wife.  He made a quick chat with my mother while I used that time to observe him.   Over dinner, I told my mom  "His wife is way way more beautiful than Carmen.  And he seemed very much in love with his wife.  Did you see how he put his arms around his wife, how possessive it looked?  And when his hands were not around his wife's shoulders, its touching her somewhere.  Plus, he has a softer look in him whenever it would fall on his wife.  I really really think he loves his wife, more than he loves Carmen."   Mom quickly hushed me and warned me not to ever ever reveal those observations to anyone , much more to Carmen.  So, I kept my silence.

In the years to come, Ping got his wife pregnant five times, and Carmen grew more agitated each time.

Then one day, we heard the news that Ping's wife ran away with another man, taking all the money of the business with her plus her last child.  Ping was so devastated that when I saw him, I hardly recognize him anymore.  The last child was not his child; it was fathered by her boyfriend.  Then it was revealed that all along his wife knew of the presence of Carmen, and how she hated Ping for keeping her even before their marriage began, which led to her plan of revenge towards him.   Ping was shocked.  Everyone was shocked because the face of the wife is so angelic, so beautiful, one cannot imagine her of any ill-doings.

On the other hand, Carmen was so elated with the news of the wife's departure from their nest.  She expected Ping to make her his wife, or at the very least stay with her from now on.   But that didn't happen.  What happened next was actually the opposite.  Ping visited her less and got more women on the side.  One night, Carmen even tearfully confessed that sometimes, she felt Ping blamed her for his wife leaving him.   Carmen got into depression until she decided to leave our place , and I never saw her again.

I continue to see Ping, but he was a changed man.  He got very thin and he is not charming anymore.  He hardly acknowledges my presence and he walks down the street with expressionless eyes like he cares nothing of the world now.

I never forgot this tale, because it made me realize something at a young age.  Don't run after destiny.  Maybe, at the start of Ping's marriage, he truly loved Carmen and meant for them to continue their romantic relationship.  Carmen showed much loyalty to Ping by shedding off her dignity and accepted to become his mistress.  But people change.  He got married to another girl and lived with her.  He fathered their children.  Circumstances changed and it's easy enough to fall into the routine of husband and wife.  At times, one needs to accept the circumstances and move on, and make the best of your own destiny.   In my mind, Carmen just gave up too much , merely to hold on to Ping's love.  She loved him more than she loved herself.  It beholden Ping to reciprocate that love and that is so much pressure to any person.  And when that person fails to love you forever, where do you start picking up the pieces.


Saturday, July 14, 2012

Hermanos Taco Shop: A Hole-in-the-Wall Mexican Eatery

You thought you've seen it all eating the burritos of Ristras.   You partied away at Chihuahua till the wee hours of the night.  But the one that truly offers honest-to-goodness mexican food is this most unassuming place in Granada Street, occupying the humble small space beside Petron Gas Station: Hermanos Taco Shop.

Rolled Tacos (beef, chicken or combo)
I always pass by Granada Street to watch movie in Promenade or to dine at one of the restaurants along Connecticut.  I saw the signage of Hermanos Taco Shop, but I never really took it seriously.  They seemed to commissioned a grade 8 student to do the signage.  There is no ambiance to speak of.  The chairs and tables cannot be more ordinary.  And cmon, it is situated beside the gas station.  How can any food-lover take this eatery seriously?

Cheese Quesadillas





So everyday that I see this taco shop, it didn't give me any pause until a friend mentioned it to me.  "You must be pulling my leg!", I replied.  But after our conversation, I googled it and a number of bloggers have been taking notice of this mexican restaurant.  They hailed it as the most authentic mexican restaurant in Metro Manila.  I didn't waste any more time and visited this hole-in-the-wall taco shop.

I ordered their best-seller rolled taco (combo, beef or chicken).  It is served with lettuce, sour cream and guacamole.  It is cooked to the crisp and you wouldn't feel scrimp on the filling.  Dip it in their own salsa, and everything is just perfect.

House Horchata
For beverage, I would urge you to order their very own House Horchata.   It is a drink of rice, cinnamon and sugar.  And before you count your carbo intake on this drink, give your diet a break.  I did.  And I don't regret doing so. There are times when you need to let go of rules to experience life.   Im not a fan of cinnamon either, but have an open mind and take a sip of this refreshing drink.





Sunday, July 8, 2012

KASBAH: An Authentic Moroccan Restaurant in Manila

Kasbah's front door
I have long been a fan of moroccan dishes.  Their blends of spices, herbs, fruits and nuts make their dishes very flavorful and aromatic.  They are also a believer of slow-cooking , just like me.  So when I heard that a new moroccan restaurant is in town, I've been itching to go.  Desperately, in fact.

Kasbah is located at the Fort Strip, in between 5th street and 26th street.  The interiors are clearly moroccan from the hanging lamps to the paintings.  The soft comfortable cushions and intimate settings spell moroccan to anybody stepping in the restaurant for the first time.


For starters, I ordered Watermelon, Feta and Olive Salad , and Couscous with Chickpea Salad.  I know, I'm a glutton.  Who orders two starters anyway.  Well, I was having a hard time deciding between the two appetizers.  And my brain is precious so I merely ordered both and decide which one is better after tasting them.  I heard some men do the same thing anyway.  :-)


Mixed Grill Kebab
 For the main course, I ordered Mixed Grill Kebab and Chicken Tajine.  The mixed grill kebab consists of chicken, fish, lamb and prawns kebab.   They are really good kebabs, and it comes with a plate of different sauces like yoghurt, mint jelly , etc.  It was really a delightful meal in itself.   And the one that I really came for is the Tajine.  Tajine is a slow-cooked stew of meat braised in low temperature with nuts, lemon, honey, fruits like apples, prunes and pears, various spices and herbs, vegetables and sauces. It is traditionally cooked in a tajine pot with a conical cover and Kasbah serves this dish using the traditional tajine pot.   The result is fantastic.  Meat is moist, tender and juicy combined with a rich aroma that can delight any food-critic.

Chicken Tajine
Personally, I think the best meat for this dish is lamb.  But my companions did not favor the lamb so we chose to have the chicken tajine instead.  And I didn't regret with my second choice.  My New York-based friend couldn't stop praising the dish.  Even after the meal was over, she kept saying how glad she was to have dined at Kasbah.

And if you decide to dine on moroccan dishes, I would recommend taking it all down with their mint tea.  The teapot itself is a feast for the eyes and the sweet minty taste of their tea just complements well with their dishes.  

Watermelon, Feta Cheese and Olive Salad
As we were concluding the night, my vegetarian friend suddenly said "It would be nice for all of us to go to Morocco one of these days.   It would be heaven to eat food like this on a daily basis. "  I smiled at her and said "Anytime.  I share your sentiment as well."  Moroccan dishes felt so boundless.  Their dishes reflect the diversity of their cuisine.  Their different ingredients show the bountiful resources they have in their land like sheep, fish, poultry and cattle, plus fruits , nuts and spices.  And they are not afraid to use them all to produce great dishes.

Couscous with Chickpea
I haven't forgotten the appetizers. The watermelon feta and olive salad is colorful and the sweet juice of watermelon blends well with the creamy saltiness of feta, but its the plain couscous with chickpea which made me want for more.  The couscous with chickpea has tinge of lemony taste in it and the couscous is truly tasty without being too overwhelming.  You just don't get tired of eating this appetizer.

And this is what a good dining experience should be: a great ambiance, an intimate setting, nothing too formal, and nothing too casual either, great food that doesn't stop in arousing your taste buds but tickles your other senses as well.

My apologies for not indicating the prices of the dishes this time.  There are just some days when money do not matter much.  But I do remember our total bill reaching 3,500 pesos thereabouts.












Most Erotic Film


When people asked me what I consider the sexiest film of all times, my answer would be Ang Lee's Lust Caution. 

The sex scenes between the newcomer Tang Wei and Tony Leung were so intense and filled with tension that it had me seething through my teeth.  It is my moment of "Don't dare talk to me right now.  And I won't leave my seat for any other reason that a real wild fire".   It is very different from the hollywood type of sexy scenes or the pornography you see in the internet.  And these are so publicly available, that the ability of Ang Lee to still put me on the edge of my seat during the entire sex scene just goes to show the genius of Ang Lee. 



It is a combination of fear, mystery and thriller that only succeeded in escalating the sexual tension of the scenes between the young naive Wong Chia Chi and the suspicious japanese spy Mr. Yee.   In retrospect, this may be the basis of the appeal of BDSM, giving up of control to someone as powerful and masterful as Mr. Yee can be very intoxicating.   I was so drawn to the psychological strength of Mr. Yee that I was half imagining the pleasure of being used by him. 

The film is set in the picturesque Shanghai during the 1930's when the Japanese has control of China government.  Mr. Yee plays the japanese collaborator and Tang Wei plays Wong Chia Chi, a student that was recruited to cast the net around Mr. Yee so they can assassinate him.  It's a bold plan and an impossible one.  What transpires next was the innocent efforts of the young Wong Chia Chi to entice a worldly man like Mr. Yee.  Mr. Yee is not stupid so he took what was offered, quite brutally in fact and left her with not a bid of goodbye.  Not to be outwitted, Wong Chia Chi followed him and continued to flirt with her destiny.  Soon, even Mr. Yee got entangled to their web of steamy sexual encounters.  We catch a glimpse of Mr. Yee's vulnerability when he gifted his young girl with a rare beautiful jewelry.  Love is not mentioned but viewers can sense how the cold and strong Mr. Yee is falling for this wisp of a girl.  And the girl is not immune too with their frequent encounters and falls hard for Mr. Yee, that in the end cost her life. 

Mr. Yee may have lived another day and he even got his expensive jewelry back, but viewers can guess that he is more affected that he cares to admit.  And he may not be at the better end of the deal.  Afterall, a broken heart is ten times worse than death. 

Tony Leung truly delivers in this film.  How he was able to project a strong powerful controlled man and yet gradually succumbing to the spell of a young girl gives testament to how great he is as an actor. He is one of the most sensitive actor I've seen on film.   His every look draws the audience to second guess what he is conveying.  He reveals and yet maintains the mystery of his character. 

The press subsequent interviews with Director Ang Lee and their incessant probing on his personal sex life just proves how effective he was in conveying a powerful erotic film.    People can't seem to fathom how an ordinary married man like Ang Lee was able to produce a highly arousing film that teases the boundaries of acceptable sex scenes.  

I have known people who have watched a hundred porn films and was still moved with this movie.   By far, this is the only film that had my dad rushing to Greenhills cinema to catch in the middle of a work day.   

Saturday, July 7, 2012

Outlook on the Sensex: Is it time to invest now?


Before I even begin, please let me clarify that Sensex is in no way related to Sex.  I also didn't misspell the word Zen Sex.  So for those who were expecting a sex article from this particular post, you are now free to move on.

Investing in Indian Stocks is not a popular choice by many, not even to the seasoned traders.  This may be due to the wild fluctuations of the index that can rarely be seen in other indices.

But like a hunky man walking down the street, India's stock market index has drawn my attention due to its valuation for some time now.  But I am also reluctant to invest in Sensex merely from instinct.  Like any disciplined investor, I want to do my due diligence.

Let's look at the historical Sensex from July 2009 to July 2012. and its corresponding PE ratio, PB values and Dividend Yield so we would know when is the right time to enter the index.  We do not want to invest in the index when it is overly optimistic and suffer a quick fall afterwards.  Investing in the market when the PE ratio is high increases the chances of low returns or negative returns.  From the table below, one can see that the PE ratio for the past 3 years has been in the range of 16 to 23, and it is currently at 17.   Just like the PE ratio, investing in the index when Price to Book ratio is high increases the chance of low returns.  PB ratio of above 4 should be avoided. As for Dividend yield, it is unusual to find a high dividend yield for index, unless the market is severely pessimistic about the market.  But normally, an acceptable dividend yield would be between 1.5 to 2.5%.  


MonthOpenHighLowClosePrice/
Earnings
Price/
Bookvalue
Dividend Yield
Jul 0914,506.4315,732.8113,219.9915,670.3119.103.531.32
Aug 0915,694.7816,002.4614,684.4515,666.6420.083.731.24
Sep 0915,691.2717,142.5215,356.7217,126.8421.203.951.17
Oct 0917,186.2017,493.1715,805.2015,896.2821.664.061.14
Nov 0915,838.6317,290.4815,330.5616,926.2221.233.991.15
Dec 0916,947.4617,530.9416,577.7817,464.8121.824.101.12
Jan 1017,473.4517,790.3315,982.0816,357.9621.994.111.10
Feb 1016,339.3216,669.2515,651.9916,429.5519.973.651.18
Mar 1016,438.4517,793.0116,438.4517,527.7721.053.851.12
Apr 1017,555.0418,047.8617,276.8017,558.7121.283.881.10
May 1017,536.8617,536.8615,960.1516,944.6319.963.561.15
Jun 1016,942.8217,919.6216,318.3917,700.9020.573.341.18
Jul 1017,679.3418,237.5617,395.5817,868.2921.203.401.17
Aug 1017,911.3118,475.2717,819.9917,971.1221.613.451.15
Sep 1018,027.1220,267.9818,027.1220,069.1222.993.661.09
Oct 1020,094.1020,854.5519,768.9620,032.3423.893.821.04
Nov 1020,272.4921,108.6418,954.8219,521.2523.033.711.06
Dec 1019,529.9920,552.0319,074.5720,509.0922.933.731.05
Jan 1120,621.6120,664.8018,038.4818,327.7622.003.621.08
Feb 1118,425.1818,690.9717,295.6217,823.4019.673.401.16
Mar 1117,982.2819,575.1617,792.1719,445.2220.043.461.13
Apr 1119,463.1119,811.1418,976.1919,135.9621.053.651.07
May 1119,224.0519,253.8717,786.1318,503.2819.593.451.14
Jun 1118,527.1218,873.3917,314.3818,845.8719.373.551.16
Jul 1118,974.9619,131.7018,131.8618,197.2019.603.441.4

Aug 11
18,352.23
18,440.07
15,765.53
16,676.75
18.36
3.34
1.51
Sep 11
16,963.67
17,211.80
15,801.01
16,453.76
18.35
3.36
1.52
Oct 11
16,255.97
17,908.13
15,745.43
17,705.01
18.20
3.36
1.52
Nov 11
17,540.55
17,702.26
15,478.69
16,123.46
17.61
3.34
1.53
Dec 11
16,555.93
17,003.71
15,135.86
15,454.92
16.92
3.22
1.58
Jan 12
15,534.67
17,258.97
15,358.02
17,193.55
17.09
3.30
1.56
Feb 12
17,179.64
18,523.78
17,061.55
17,752.68
18.32
3.55
1.44
Mar 12
17,714.62
18,040.69
16,920.61
17,404.20
17.85
3.46
1.47
Apr 12
17,429.96
17,664.10
17,010.16
17,318.81
17.63
3.32
1.65
May 12
17,370.93
17,432.33
15,809.71
16,218.53
16.49
3.01
1.80
Jun 12
16,217.48
17,448.48
15,748.98
17,429.98
16.37
3.09
1.76
Jul 12
17,438.68
17,562.89
17,351.50
17,538.67
17.05
3.23
1.69
















Although the current P/E ratio , PB values and Dividend Yield of the Sensex seems to indicate that it is attractive to go in, India is facing a rough ride.   India's growth slowed to 5.3% in the first 3 months of 2012.  The budget deficit is  at 5.9%, way above the target 4.6% of GDP.  It seems the government is spending money on impoverished rural areas and financing the poor with their basic needs.  The problem is they raise the money by turning to foreign investors and stacking them with sky-rocket licensing fees and taxes.  Recently, they have legal battle with Vodafone because they want them to pay $3.6B in capital gains taxes stemming from their takeover of Hutchison Whampoa.  Vodafone cried foul.  Last I heard, the government is reconsidering this case.

And the more important issue is the GAAR ( General Anti Avoidance Rules) that has sent the foreign institutional investors running out of India.   Due to its impact to investors' sentiments, the government is deferring the implementation of GAAR.  Their very own Chamber of Commerce realizes the effect of GAAR to their economy and is requesting for the postponement of GAAR till 2015.  Although GAAR has been postponed,  India still needs to do a lot more to bring back the confidence of domestic and overseas equity investors to boost their economy. 

The government needs to find better ways to finance their pro-poor projects than merely breaking the backs of foreign investors by imposing high taxes and being creative about their tax schemes.  Gone are the days of having the mentality of "You need India, more than India needs you.".   On the bright side, the fact that the government is reconsidering the Vodafone case and their willingness to defer the GAAR are signs that the government is being flexible and this may be our window of opportunity to place our bets now, especially with a weakening rupee as an added bonus. 




Thursday, July 5, 2012

One Summer Fling in Capri Island



We joined Tauck tour to Italy one summer time.  I haven't been enjoying the tour so far because my mother has me at her beck and call.  I was not allowed time of my own.   But I was given a reprieve when she had fallen ill on the day we are to embark for Capri island.  Her forehead was hot and she has to stay in the hotel.  She wanted me to stay with her but good thing, the tour director assured her that a young woman like me would surely prefer roaming the beautiful island rather than stay cooped up in a hotel room.   With much reluctance, my mother let me go.  I was so happy to be on my own that I forgot to ask for pocket money.   But what the heck, I am off to Capri island without the Hawk

We hopped on to a ferry from Naples (or was it Sorrento? )  and I made sure to take the seat by the window, nearest to the sea.  I wanted to feel the sea breeze lapping on my face and the sunshine warming my whole body.   I was smiling all throughout the ride.  And my joy was probably quite infectious because unknown to me, an italian boy followed me when I hopped out of the ferry.  

As I climbed up the slope towards the Piazzetta, I was astounded at the magnificence of this little island.  How can something so small offer so much?  No wonder we were given one whole day to explore this island.  As I roam around the famous Piazzetta, I realized I have no money in my pocket and I was to be stuck here the whole day.  So, I just walked over to one of those benches overlooking the mediterranean sea and just basked in the glorious view around me.  When suddenly, the italian boy from the ferry plumped next to me.  " Hola, ¿Cómo está" , he greeted.  I didn't spare him a glance.  20 years of strict catholic upbringing and a much stricter chinese style of child-rearing made me ignore this stranger's call.  But he was a persistent one.  "Hello I said.  You don't speak spanish?  I am Miguel. And you are ...   ?"   I peeked through my short eyelashes and said a shy " Hello, I'm Erika. ".  He smiled at me and said "Wow, you can talk.  For a while there, I thought you were mute. " .  I smiled widely this time, and got enough courage to speak more. "I'm not mute.  I am just not used to talking to strangers."  He then asked "Are you alone?".  I nodded my head and explained my mother's illness that prompted her to stay behind.   Getting relaxed, I bravely quipped, " If you are planning to rob me, Im sorry to say that Im poorer than a pauper.  And that's why Im just here looking at the sea because I have no money to buy food or drinks.".  He looked at me with delight and said "Hey, I've got a few money here.  It should be enough for both of us to get decent food."  I declined at first but his sweet insistence and the growling of my stomach led me to agree to go with him.  
He said he sings in a band and that in his spare time, he goes to the boxing ring.  Then, he made me listen to a music he composed.  We kept talking that I do not remember much of what I saw in Capri Island.  I just remember seeing some flowers on the road, lots of restaurants, a cathedral perhaps and some stoned wall and lots of tourists. We had some grilled zucchini, some bread and soup in one of the cheaper food stalls there, and afterwards we had some gelato.  He was laughing so hard to the way I was eating.  But then, while I was eating my gelato, he said something in spanish "Me encanta la forma de comer su helado. Me hace querer a comer mi pene. Me gustaría hacer el amor contigo en estos momentos.".  I stopped smiling.  I failed to tell him that my first job was programming in spanish.  My spanish may be limited to "wires" and " electricity" but my spanish boss thought I would do better with night schooling in the spanish language.  So, I may not be fluent in spanish, but I understood the general meaning of what he said.  And I don't like it one bit.  His sweet smile betrayed his horny imaginations of me.  How can he think of me eating his cock when I was just eating my ice cream?  So I quickly stood up and left him.  He ran after me, asking me what is wrong.  And that's the time I thought I should answer him in spanish too.  Correction, it's more like rant in spanish.   He was shocked.  He never thought I would understand what he said.  And he kept apologizing.   I kept turning away.  But he would always block my path.  Grrrr....   did I tell you he was persistent?    Fine.  So I let him speak and explain.  And what he said next blew me away.  "When I saw you in the ferry, I thought you have the most beautiful eyes I've seen in my whole life.  I've never seen eyes like yours.  They are shaped like almonds.  And your smile was so beautiful.  I just have to talk to you, so I chased after you.  I saw you walk along the slopes and going around like you don't know where you are going, until you stopped by the bench overlooking the sea.  And I thought this would be my chance to talk to you.  I do not deny it, I want you.   I want to make love to you.  But if you don't want to, then it's fine, I just want to spend the day with you, if you'd let me.   Please forgive me about what I said earlier.  I do not mean to offend you.  But I admit I imagine us having sex.  But don't get mad.  I won't think of it further.  I just want to be with you."    Man, he already had me at "beautiful eyes".   And c'mon, Im not immune to his big blues and long eyelashes.   He is truly a very beautiful man.  Paris himself would have envied this man.   

By that time, it was almost sunset, and my ferry is about to leave for Naples.   But I have a few more minutes to spare.  I thanked him for the food and ice cream that we shared from his allowance.  But my.... I can't think straight looking at his face.  In the end, I just looked at the view of the sunset by the sea and savoring that moment with Miguel.  He slowly touched my face, and he said "I wanna see your eyes for one last time."  And I let him.   He slowly kissed me on the cheek, until I suddenly found his lips next to mine.  How it got there?  I also don't know.  Im the most forgetful and stupid person when my heart is thumping so fast.  

Then I heard the tour director shouting my name.  I was the last one to embark and she was looking at me badly, giving me warning that I need to leave fast.  I nodded my head and as I was about to run to the ferry, I gave Miguel one last look.  The view of Capri island became more beautiful with his face in the sunset and the sea.  I waved him good bye.  He ran after me.  I looked at him and asked "What are you doing?".  He replied ," I will run with you to the ferry." .  And he grabbed my hand as we ran towards the boat, squealing in delight.  We hugged one last time.  I smiled at him, and he smiled back.  But this time, my smile has a touch of sadness in it.  

**** Note:   

1. Spanish translation was taken from Google translate.  Sorry if its awful but I totally forgot my spanish. 

2. Miguel is Italian but he can speak Spanish fluently too.